Oil Exploration Prospect Risking - some personal lessons
Some personal lessons from the dark side for geoscientists to CEOs
Free
FEATURED SPEAKERS
Mark Shann
» Chief technical officer
» Westlawn Americas Offshore
Full Agenda
Friday, October 25, 2024
Webinar
Online
Estimating volumes for undrilled exploration prospects is relatively straight-forward and with good seismic and offset well data, volume estimates can be relatively easily quantified to a good degree of accuracy.
However, estimating exploration prospect risk is not straight-forward at all. This is a story of the ups and downs of a career as an exploration geologist and some of the personal “Ah Ha!” moments that have occurred and from that “some guidelines to encourage exploration success” for geologists and their CEO’s / investors have emerged.
This presentation delves into the way the oil & gas industry derives the geological chance of success (GCoS) for undrilled exploration prospects, both from a holistic methodology (and its potential pitfalls), and from a career personal viewpoint of what has worked and what has not, in both the large corporate company culture and in smaller private equity ventures.
Key aspects of the presentation include: -
- “Why and What we risk”, the strange multiplication method of risking multiple prospect parameters and its numerical impact for investors to be aware of.
- Play vs. Prospect risk is discussed, with reference to past dry hole examples.
- The importance of shot-point risk is highlighted (which is not captured at all under GCoS).
- Some practical tools to improve exploration success are shown, comparing risking using observations vs. geological model, using trend statistics and using an Efficient Frontier plot for ranking an exploration portfolio.
- A discussion on the role of independent Assurance teams to help assess GCoS, both positive and negative is also included.
4pm London time / 10am Houston time
Watch the video of Mark Shann's Finding Petroleum webinar on June 28 2024, "Lessons from Past Disruptive Discoveries," here
Mark Shann is Chief Technical Officer of Westlawn Americas Offshore, a portfolio company of Westlawn, a private investment firm based in Houston Texas, which is focused on long-term investment in the global oil and gas industry.
Mr Shann participated in finding the Zama field in Mexico in 2017, while working for Sierra Oil and Gas Mexico.
Westlawn Americas Offshore
Westlawn is a private investment firm based in Houston, TX focused on long-term investment in the gl
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