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Finding Petroleum Opportunities In Iran

There's plenty of oil in Iran, and gas too - but building a business is complex
Ryan Turner
» Lead Analyst with PGI's Geo-political Risk Team
» Protection Group International
Teng Ben
» Senior research associate
» Bernstein Research

Full Agenda

Thursday, May 19, 2016
The Geological Society

download the event report

On May 19th we reviewed what is happening in the Iranian oil and gas industry as it begins to open up in a complicated, not exactly post-sanctions, era and what opportunities might be on offer for western explorers, producers and service companies.

Yes, some sanctions are being lifted - but that doesn't mean that there are large business opportunities - and of course there is a lot of complicated history. And much of the production growth potential may be in gas rather than oil.

For a good overview of potential in Iran, see our report from the talk by FGE's Siamak Adibi at our October 2015 Middle East event - page 9-11 here.

On 19th, we reviewed the political and security issues, what we expect from the geology (including in the Zagros region), and the business opportunities which may exist. And the extent to which Iran requires technical help as opposed to simpy $s!

Our aim was to get to the realities.......


9:30 David Bamford - Director
Future Energy Partners Ltd

Welcome & Introduction: Session 1 - Context

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David Bamford is well known around the oil & gas industry both as an explorer and a geophysicist. He retired from BP plc in 2003, his last four positions being Chief Geophysicist (1990-1995), Business Unit Leader (General Manager) for first West Africa and then Norway (1995-1999), and finally Head of Exploration until 2003.

He has undertaken asset and company valuation projects for investment banks, hedge funds and small oil companies. He has been a board director of Tullow Oil and Premier Oil.

He holds a Physics degree from the University of Bristol and a Ph.D in Geological Sciences from the University of Birmingham.

Future Energy Partners Ltd
Future Energy Partners (FEP) is a unique oil and gas advisory service which prides itself on technic
9:40 Derek Cox - Business Development & Customer Relations Manager
BBC Monitoring

Insights on the internal politics of oil & gas in Iran

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BBC Monitoring
Established in 1939, BBC Monitoring, is a leading provider of open source information and analysis t
10:15 Ryan Turner - Lead Analyst with PGI's Geo-political Risk Team
Protection Group International

The realities of working in Iran

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Talk Description
The presentation will provide an overview of the key challenges facing Western businesses in Iran.

This will include an assessment of issues linked to remaining sanctions and the risks that these present for investors in Iran. The importance, and difficulty, of performing due diligence in Iran will also be discussed. Broader considerations such as regulatory uncertainty, security and operational threats, as well bureaucratic issues also merit attention and will be addressed.

Lessons and experiences from British businesses who have operated on the ground in Iran will inform the presentation throughout.

I. Iran for UK investors
II. Key Challenges
i. Sanctions
ii. Snap?back provisions
iii. Due diligence

III. Broader considerations

i. Corruption
ii. Regulatory/Bureaucracy
iii. Security

IV. How can/should businesses respond

V. Summing up and Looking ahead – the investor?friendly Rouhani agenda

Ryan Turner is a Lead Analyst for PGI’s Geopolitical Intelligence team, with strong focus in the extractive industry and expertise in the Middle East. Ryan has expert knowledge of the global Oil & Gas Sector, as well as economic, political and security developments in the Middle East. He also has an understanding of the impact of political risk on the global energy market. Ryan has shared his views on security and energy market in numerous media appearances on BBC and CNBC and other networks.

Prior to joining PGI, Ryan was an Oil & Gas Analyst for a company which for the past 30 years, has had forecasts, data and analysis used by multinationals, governments and financial institutions to guide critical decisions. In this role, he worked daily with a team of country risk and sector focused analysts to provide insight and analysis in the global oil and gas market, with a regional remit focused on the Middle East and Sub-Saharan Africa.

Protection Group International
PGI is a privately owned UK business offering integrated, intelligence-led risk management solutions
11:00 Coffee & Tea; Exhibits
11:15 Andy Horbury - Director/Founder
Cambridge Carbonates

Petroleum Geology of Iran

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Cambridge Carbonates Ltd. is a geological consultancy that provides expertise in carbonate and evapo
11:50 Andrew Wright -
Horizon Development Group

2016- The Iran Upstream and Downstream Opportunity- what is needed, when it is needed, why it is needed and how to be successful in providing what is required

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Talk Description
In 2015 the National Iranian Oil Company announced that they require $150 billion of upstream investment and $77 billion of downstream investment in their energy industry over the next ten years. In November 2015 they unveiled the new Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) to allow International Oil Companies to invest in the Iran upstream. These IPC projects are one of three opportunities for IOC’s and international oil field equipment, goods and service providers as NIOC spend around $4 billion a year on operating costs and $5 to $10 billion in their subsidiaries on capital investment and major refurbishment projects.

Iran requires both capital and technology for its oil and gas industries and it will achieve this technology transfer to the Iranian supply chain through local content targets for both the IOCs and NIOC and its subsidiaries. As a consequence of sanctions and a policy of developing a resilient economy, Iran has surprising gaps in its capabilities alongside a fully functioning and effective oil and gas supply chain. It is recognising these gaps, the opportunities to supply the equipment, goods and services that Iran requires and partnering with the right local companies, who will enhance the chance of success while protecting corporate reputation and shareholder value, that will determine which IOCs and international equipment, goods and service providers are successful in the Iranian market in long term.

This talk will briefly address what is required in Iran, when it will be needed and how to win work and build a long term sustainable business in the Iranian upstream and downstream equipment, goods and services market.
The Horizon Development Group employs more than 2,000 staff and has offices in the Middle East, Moza
12:25 Teng Ben - Senior research associate
Bernstein Research

The impact of Iran's return on Global Markets

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Teng Ben was formerly Business Development Lead Analyst, Portfolio Management, E&P division with ENI, and Analyst - Oil, Gas & Renewables with Standard Bank. She has an MSC in Financial Economics from Said Business School, University of Oxford.

Bernstein Research
Sanford C. Bernstein is widely recognized as Wall Street's premier sell-side research firm. Their re
13:00 Raffle Prize Draw; followed by Lunch & Exhibits

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