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Opportunities and risks in the Middle East & the Levant


....Back to the Future, to find low cost oil?
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FEATURED SPEAKERS
Stephen Trueblood
» Commercial Manager
» ‘Sasol Exploration and Production International
John Hurst
» Recently retired Head of Exploration
» Genel Energy

Full Agenda

Tuesday, October 20, 2015
London
The Geological Society


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Perhaps in the search for lower Cost of Supply oil, Majors and Independents will be drawn once more to the Middle East?

What are the opportunities nowadays in Iraq - especially Kurdistan - or Egypt for example; what could they be if Iran were to become accessible again, making the big assumption that the nuclear proliferation issue can be settled? And what's going on in the Lebanon - Israel - Cyprus 'triangle'?

And, after the unrealistically euphoric days of the “Arab Spring” what are we to make of the political situation, from the Mediterranean Sea to the Indian Ocean? And what should we think about the security situation, beyond the obvious “no-go” areas?

David Bamford

Agenda

 
9:30 Andrew Lodge - Principal
StrategicFit

Welcome & Introductory Overview on the Middle East: Followed by SESSION 1: Egypt and the Eastern Mediterranean


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Andrew is now a Principal at StrategicFit and a Non-Executive Director at Egdon Resources.

Previously, he joined Premier Oil plc’s Board as Exploration Director in April 2009 from Hess where he was Vice President, Exploration, responsible for Europe, North Africa, Asia and Australia for nine years. Prior to that, he was Vice President, Exploration, Asset Manager and Group Exploration Advisor for BHP Petroleum, based in London and Australia. Prior to joining BHP Petroleum, Andrew worked for BP as a geophysicist. He has an honours degree in Mining Geology from the University of Wales and a Masters in Applied Geophysics from the University of Leeds. He is a fellow of the Geological Society.

He retired from Premier Oil in June 2015.

StrategicFit
StrategicFit is a strategy consulting firm specialising in the upstream oil and gas industry.
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10:00 Stephen Trueblood - Commercial Manager
‘Sasol Exploration and Production International

The future for Egypt's oil & gas industry


Talk Description
Where the oil & gas industry is today in Egypt, how it got there and the direction it may be going in.
Challenges & advantages around the industry in Egypt.
Stephen is a Commercial Manager at Sasol Petroleum International responsible for Southern Africa. In a previous life he was an exploration geologist for Murphy, Hamilton Brothers and BHP and retains a keen interest in the petroleum geology side of the business.

‘Sasol Exploration and Production International
Sasol Exploration and Production International (SEPI) develops and manages the group's upstream inte
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10:35 Neil Hodgson - Executive Vice President Mediterranean and Middle East Region
Spectrum

Petroleum Systems of the Levant


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Talk Description
In a period of low oil price, East Med has started to look like a complex area to develop new business in; Libya and Syria with above ground issues, Nile Delta running out of easy gas (only deep and expensive gas left), Lebanon Licensing round not progressing, and a couple of dry wells drilled in Cyprus. Or so we thought until IEOC made the 30TCF Zohr discovery a month ago.
So although the fundamentals of the hydrocarbon stories in the area haven’t changed, and I’ll discuss these, the exploration energy in the Eastern Med has been electrified by Zohr, and I’ll talk about the effect on play systems in Cyprus, Lebanon and possibly Libya/Italy.
Dr Neil Hodgson joined Spectrum in June 2012, having previously worked for BP, BG and Premier Oil at a number of Exploration Geology roles over a 25 year career. His last role prior to joining Spectrum was as Exploration Director for Matra Petroleum. Neil is focussed on developing the understanding of hydrocarbon plays in the areas of Spectrum’s Library, and finding new ways for Spectrum to do business. He manages Spectrum’s Geology, Geophysics and GIS technology team located in the UK office.

Spectrum
Spectrum is established as a key player in the seismic services market. The company focuses on deliv
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11:10 Coffee
11:35 Øystein Lie - Project Manager MC Middle East and CIS
PGS

Egypt’s West Mediterranean Sea – A New opportunity


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Talk Description
A new area of 80,000 sq.km is now open for exploration in Egypt's West Mediterranean Sea. To increase understanding of the petroleum systems, identify the play types and define future exploration blocks, new regional geophysical data is crucial and approximately 5,000 line km of new geophysical data is tentatively planned to be acquired during the first quarter of 2016. Areas to be covered and line locations are being planned in collaboration with EGAS and companies prepared to explore this frontier area.
Graduated from Curtin University of Technology, Australia with a MSc. in Exploration Geophysics in 1998. Employed by PGS and has worked in different positions. Started in the Data Processing department in 1999 and moved into the MultiClient department in 2007. Currently he is Project Manager for the Middle East and CIS group based in the headquarters of PGS in Oslo. Øystein has been involved in and developed projects in Russia, Greece, Cyprus, Lebanon and Egypt.

PGS
PGS is a dedicated marine geophysical company. We provide images and 3D models of the subsurface tha
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12:10 SESSION 2: The Gulf and the Zagros
12:11 Richard Jones - CEO
Geospatial Research

Structural Style in the Zagros: Implications for Hydrocarbon Systems


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Talk Description
The Zagros mountain belt through Iran and the Kurdistan Region of Iraq is characterised by world class structural traps and stacked fractured reservoirs. Despite the apparent simplicity of many four-way traps seen at surface in satellite imagery, most anticlines show significant structural complexity, arising from a combination of several key factors:

  1. The pronounced mechanical stratigraphy of the cover sequence, characterised by mechanically strong platform carbonates, alternating with thick packages of weak shales, mudstones and evaporites. This exerts a fundamental control on folding and thrusting, the resultant trap geometry and integrity, and the development of pervasive fracture networks.
  2. Structural inheritance, both from reactivation of early regional fracture sets seen in basement rocks of the Arabian shield, and the postulated inversion of Tethyan rift structures that remain poorly imaged at present.
  3. The oblique close of the Tethys ocean, and the consequent transpressional development of the Zagros.

Collectively these factors have a profound effect on hydrocarbon systems through the region, and make the structural style of the Zagros very different to classic fold and thrust belts such as the Rockies, Alps or Himalayas.

Over the last decade, GRL have extensive field experience across the Middle East, including the Zagr
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12:45 Lunch: Exhibits
13:25 Andy Horbury - Director/Founder
Cambridge Carbonates

Carbonates in a foreland basin petroleum province: The Zagros margin of the Arabian Plate


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Talk Description
The Arabian Plate is justly known as the major hydrocarbon province of the world, and many of its petroleum systems are located in relatively standard although very large, intraplatform basin systems. However the area is unusual in that much of its reserve is located in a carbonate-dominated foreland basin system in younger rocks of Late Cretaceous and Cenozoic age. This is largely attributable to the fact that compression and collision of the Arabian Plate with Eurasia was such a slow process and only became typical of most other fast-subsiding, clastic-dominated and highly compressive foreland basins during the later Neogene. The importance of early foreland evolution lies in the trapping of most clastic input on the NE basin margin, allowing development to the SW of thick carbonate shelf margin reservoirs that offlap laterally through time, into a sediment-starved basin. Carbonate platform growth was interspersed in time and space with areas and periods of tectonic uplift that sometimes provoked shoaling and often the development of secondary karstic porosity. During basin closure there was also an increasing abundance of basin-fill evaporites within the stratigraphy, that come to dominate the depositional system and act as a regional top seal. These events occurred prior to major loading of the basin by the later Neogene clastic infill, which provides significant burial sufficient to promote hydrocarbon migration out of pre-foreland source kitchens.
Cambridge Carbonates Ltd. is a geological consultancy that provides expertise in carbonate and evapo
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14:00 John Hurst - Recently retired Head of Exploration
Genel Energy
The highs and lows of exploration in the KRI region of Iraq

Talk Description
Exploration in Kurdistan has a long history but it is only relatively recently that there has been a flurry of activity and discoveries. Often considered an area where finding petroleum is akin to shooting fish in a barrel some of the critical geological elements that can be both positive and negative for finding commercial hydrocarbons are explained. Most obvious fields have been found but detached deeper structures exist. Jurassic and Cretaceous reservoirs can paradoxically be good and bad in the same instance. The size of accumulations (spill points), finding rates and ultimately field sizes are presently difficult to determine accurately and relate to the complexity of structures and reservoir evaluation/performance.
   
John Hurst holds a D.Phil and D.Sc in geology from Oxford University. From 76 to 82 his career started in Greenland evaluating regional geology. Subsequently he held a series of senior technical positions in both BP and Total from 1982 to 1996, specializing in carbonate petroleum systems. John was a founder and Exploration Director of London listed Indago Petroleum and became General Manager for its successor RAK Petroleum during 2004-2009. In 2010 John founded Barrus Petroleum which was acquired by Genel Energy in 2012. From 2012 to 2015 he was Head of Exploration at Genel Energy.

Genel Energy
Genel Energy plc is an oil company with a registered office in Jersey and field office in Turkey. It
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14:35 Mike Simmons - Halliburton Technology Fellow for Geosciences
Landmark Exploration Insights
Iran: Ready to Assess the Opportunities

Talk Description
Despite its long history of hydrocarbon production, there remains a great deal of potential for exploration in Iran, alongside increasing recovery from existing fields. The Iranian government has expressed a desire to see liquids production double by 2018 to 5.7MMbopd and gas production in increase to 35.3Bcfgpd (most from development of the super-giant South Pars gas field) – a major opportunity for collaboration when international sanctions are lifted.
Exploration potential relates to:

1. Classic Zagros Fold Belt plays – but assessing the opportunities in deeper stratigraphy and from lowstand stratigraphic architectures
2. Extension of the fractured carbonate plays from Kurdistan
3. Resource plays from rock units such as the Kazhdumi and Pabdeh shales.
4. The potential of the South Caspian – what is the significance of the Sardar-e-Jangal discovery?
To assess these opportunities requires access to as much well organized data as possible and interpretations that cut through over-simplistic and/or confusing lithostratigraphy and which examine the distribution of reservoir, source and seal from the perspective of predictive sequence stratigraphy and in regional context with the application of suitable analogues.
This approach is also very relevant to improving recovery from existing fields by application of sequence stratigraphic models that explain both vertical and horizontal reservoir heterogeneities and thus lead to improved modelling and exploitation strategies.
   
Following a PhD on Middle East geology, joined BP and worked in a variety of roles in international exploration (1985 - 1996). Took time out from industry to be the Shell-funded Head of Department at Aberdeen University (1996 - 2001) and then led the CASP research group at the University of Cambridge (2001 - 2003) before joining ex-BP colleagues at Neftex (2003 - Present). Neftex is now part the Landmark business unit within Halliburton.

My role at Neftex was initially to lead the geoscience development of the organisation with the creation of our proprietary model of biostratigraphically-calibrated eustatic sea-level change as a tool and framework for interpreting and correlating data and the prediction of the key elements of petroleum systems. At the same time I promoted the release of value from the huge amounts of published geoscience data that are often overlooked in the exploration process. In the last few years I have worked extensively with the industry to help Neftex achieve exceptional business growth through understanding the needs of explorationists involved in basin screening and promoting the solutions Neftex provides.

I have been appointed as an Halliburton Technology Fellow with responsibility for Geosciences. The role includes promoting geoscience innovations and applications both within Halliburton and externally. I am currently researching Middle East stratigraphy and also have interests in the following:

Petroleum exploration workflows, especially integration with 3D technology and application of sequence stratigraphy.
Regional geoscience, specifically the Middle East and Black Sea regions
Utilization of published geoscience data and information
Geoscience career development
Applied biostratigraphy

My research interests are reflected in a number of publications and scientific presentations made over my career. I am an Honorary Professor at the University of London and Scientific Associate of The Natural History Museum

Landmark Exploration Insights
Landmark Exploration Insights (formerly Neftex), is a product family within Landmark, a business lin
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15:10 Siamek Adibi - Senior Consultant & Head of Middle East Gas Team,
FGE

Opportunities In Iran's Upstream Sector Post-Sanctions


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Talk Description
· Iran's new upstream contract framework: What are the advantages and disadvantages?
· What’s current status of Iran oil and gas production? How much oil and gas will be produced in Iran, and where are the new supply sources?
· Which oil and gas fields have potential for foreign investments?
· Iran's oil and gas exports: What potential export opportunities exist once sanctions are lifted? What are the key obstacles for Iran's gas export projects?
· What are the main risks for upstream investment in Iran? How the companies can mitigate these risks?

Iran has ambitious goals to increase its crude oil production capacity to around 5 mmb/d and gas production to over 35 bscf/d by the end of this decade. To achieve the goals, the country requires an access to foreign technology and financing. In fact, when sanctions will be lifted, Iran will need to encourage foreign investments in its oil fields through more attractive upstream contracts. The new upstream contract model called the Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) is a risk service integrated exploration, development, and production contract that combines features from both typical?style service contracts and production?sharing agreements (PSA). Lifting sanctions and return of the IOCs to the country will result in dramatic and positive changes in the Iranian petroleum industry. However, Iran will remain as a high risk country for international investments and the main question remains how risks can be mitigate?
Siamak, born in Iran, specializes in the natural gas/LNG business with a focus on the Middle East, North Africa, and CIS countries. He has extensive analytical experience and insights as well as practical experience in the Iranian oil and gas sector for over a decade. Mr. Adibi served for a number of years with the National Iranian Gas Export Company (NIGEC). At NIGEC, Siamak was involved with several commercial negotiations in marketing and sales of gas by pipeline to Europe, the Persian Gulf, and CIS regions.
He is a specialist in energy modeling and long-term supply/demand forecasts. Siamak has an extensive knowledge about the upstream oil and gas and infrastructure in Iran. Siamak’s most recent FGE multi-client study focused on the Middle East domestic gas market. He is an internationally recognized expert on Iran and Middle East oil and gas sector. Siamak holds an MBA from Victoria University, Australia, an MA in Energy Economics from Islamic Azad University in Iran, and a BA in Economics from Allameh University in Iran.

FGE
FGE is an international energy consultancy group that services clients on a regular basis by produci
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15:45 Close

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