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Oil in North West Europe


.......will independence of supply just be a mirage?
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Thursday, January 23, 2014
London
The Geological Society

What opportunities are there for oil exploration and exploitation in NW Europe??

Below ground, we can make a few observations:

  1. First of all, we have to confess that exploration has been pretty dismal over the last two years, with a marked lack of success offshore (in the UKCS and Norway) and abject failure in conventional onshore exploration.
  2. Development projects are suffering from escalating cost projections, cost over-runs, delays and production shortfalls.
  3. Many individual fields, in the UKCS and NOCS, are showing unnervingly high decline rates.
  4. Many companies talk the talk on IOR and EOR but there do not seem to be a concerted set of actions that will move us towards 60%+ recovery factors in the UKCS and NOCS.
  5. Shale oil is emerging, with interest in the Kimmeridge of the Weald area of the UK and the Posidonia Shale of Northern Germany.

Above ground, of course there are some significant issues to contemplate.
In general, the 'regulators' are moving in.
And there is a lot of ‘noise’ around proposals to exploit shale resources, from government enthusiasm but local opposition in the UK, government uncertainty in Germany, and outright government/Presidential opposition in France. And attempts to couple CO2 capture and storage with EOR – as has been so very successful in the USA – seem to have fallen on the stony ground of indifference or outright opposition.

In addition, the investment world seems to have turned its face against oil & gas, at least for the moment, with smaller companies struggling to raise capital, seeing dramatic drops in share price, and in all probability facing a wave of forced consolidation.

Thus whilst the USA can contemplate a vision of oil independence, is NW Europe destined to remain hooked on the global geopolitics of oil, increasingly shovelling money in the direction of OPEC?

Agenda

 
9:00 Arrivals and Registration. Tea & Coffee
9:30 Greg Coleman -
PetroMall Ltd

Welcome & Introduction


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Greg has over 40 years experience in the oil and gas industry including over 30 years experience with BP plc following which he served as CEO of a private equity backed company he co-founded called Canamens and subsequently as CEO of a listed company on the London Stock Exchange called Independent Resources plc subsequently refinanced and renamed now called Echo Energy plc.

At BP, Greg served as Business Leader for BP Norway, Head of Investor Relations and finally as group Vice President for Health, Safety, Security and Environment at global remit before retiring in 2006.

PetroMall Ltd
Petromall is a unique oil and gas advisory service which prides itself on technical excellence in se
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9:40 Oswald Clint - Senior Analyst
Bernstein Research

UKCS and NOCS field declines - the realities!


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Dr Clint joined Sanford C. Bernstein in 2004 and was part of the Energy Team with Neil McMahon covering the Global Integrated Oil sector.

Currently he is the Senior Research Analyst covering the European E&P and Russian Oil & Gas sectors. The Bernstein Energy franchise has become well known due to both the provocative commentary on the commodities and oil stocks, as well as the innovative research that forms the core of their frequent publications. Previously, he worked as an accountant and consultant for KPMG covering energy, gas, and chemical sectors. Dr Clint received his PhD in Geophysics from University College London where he specialised in sub-surface rock physics and is also a Chartered Accountant.

Bernstein Research
Sanford C. Bernstein is widely recognized as Wall Street's premier sell-side research firm. Their re
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10:15 David Bamford -
New Eyes Exploration

Costs are killing the North Sea!


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Talk Description
I'm not sure I should take issue with a knight of the realm but I do believe Sir Ian Wood's interim review* of Maximising Economic Recovery in the UKCS is insufficiently focused on COSTS.

Three factoids which I will develop more fully elsewhere:

1. Specific development projects, for example Rosebank (West of Shetland; Chevron) and Bressay (Northern North Sea; Statoil) are being cancelled or delayed because heavy costs are making them uneconomic.

2. IPA's project benchmarking data base shows that cost over-runs, delays and production shortfalls are unnervingly common.

3. Specifically, three Norwegian projects (Skarv, Valhalla redevelopment and Yme) have over-run by NOK42bn in total.
David Bamford is well known around the oil & gas industry both as an explorer and a geophysicist. He holds a Physics degree from the University of Bristol and a Ph.D in Geological Sciences from the University of Birmingham.

Since 2004, he has been a non-executive director at Tullow Oil plc, being recruited for this position especially for his exploration knowledge. He serves on the Nominations and Remuneration Committees, and was chairman of the latter, and Senior Independent Director, for 3 years prior to his retire from the board at the end of April 2014.

He was on the board of Premier Oil from May 2014 to May 2016.

He retired from BP plc in 2003, his last four positions being Chief Geophysicist (1990-1995), Business Unit Leader (General Manager) for first West Africa and then Norway (1995-1999), and finally Head of Exploration until 2003.

He has served on the boards of Paras Ltd, a small exploration and IS/IT consulting company in which he held 22% equity, until its sale to RPS Energy in 2008 and Welltec a/s, a Danish well engineering company, as the nominee of the private equity investor Riverside.
From 2012 to 201 he was on the board of ASX-quoted Australia Oriental Energy as a non-executive director.

He was a founder of Richmond Energy Partners, a small oil & gas research house, and several media companies that focus on the oil & gas sector, and has served as an advisor to Alliance Bernstein, Opus Executive, the Parkmead Group plc, and Kimmeridge Energy LLP. Since retiring from BP, he has undertaken asset and company valuation projects for investment banks, hedge funds and small oil companies.

New Eyes Exploration
New Eyes Exploration, founded by David Bamford, explores new ways to discover Oil and Gas.
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10:50 Coffee & tea
11:15 Anders Wittemann - Associate Partner 1Derrick
1Derrick

Trends and outlook for Northwest Europe offshore exploration licensing, drilling and farm-out activity


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Talk Description
The presentation will include statistics on past and future activity, results and trends related to licensing, exploration, and M&A activity in the Offshore Northwest Europe region, i.e., North Sea, North Atlantic, primarily UK, Ireland, and Norway.

Specifically, the presentation will include statistics and future trends on the following:
- Past exploration activity and results, e.g., number of exploration wells drilled, key results from recent years, by vintage of license round, farm-in activity by number and outcome (what has been the outcome from farm-outs in the past). Comparisons will be made between UK and Norway
- Outlook of future activity
- Statistics on future licenses and wells to be drilled, by location/basin, license vintage, company type
- Statistics on pre-drill prospect sizes with comparisons e.g., between UK and Norway
- Indications of future hot spots, where will the next big discoveries be made, and why?
- How exploration results will contribute to future production in the region, specifically UK, Ireland and Norway
- Other industry trends and drivers observed and assessed, including key success factors for exploration

How is this useful to the audience:
- Understand trends to ensure own portfolio and strategy is in alignment
- Gain knowledge of benchmarks to calibrate own business planning, e.g., what to expect in terms of future activity and results
- Identify specific areas and types opportunities to be pursued or get inspired by

Sources of information to be utilized includes: 1Derrick/WEPC’ proprietary Northwest Europe Business Development Book, Derrick Petroleum Services’ Global M&A Database and supplementary research conducted by 1Derrick/WEPC.

See links to research published by 1Derrick/WEPC
http://www.pandjenergy.co.uk/2013/01/over-90-ae-wells-ready-to-be-sunk-in-uk/
http://www.upstreamonline.com/epaper/article1315360.ece
http://www.upstreamonline.com/epaper/article1249976.ece
Educated at Imperial College and INSEAD. Career history includes work experience as a petroleum engineer and management consultant with Shell, McKinsey & Rystad Energy. Currently an independent consultant based in Norway and associate partner with 1Derrick.

1Derrick
1Derrick/Derrick Petroleum Services is an independent oil and gas research and consulting firm with
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11:50 Kes Heffer -
PetroMall Ltd

Maintaining North Sea production


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Petromall is a unique oil and gas advisory service which prides itself on technical excellence in se
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12:25 Paul Griffin - Managing Director, Dana UK
Dana Petroleum

The future of the UKCS and NOCS?


Paul joined Dana Petroleum in 2005 and became Managing Director of the UK business in 2011. He has nearly 30 years experience in the oil and gas industry in the UK, United States, South East Asia, the Middle East and Africa. Before joining Dana he spent 13 years at Enterprise Oil, where he performed a variety of roles. He has broad management expertise in both onshore and offshore operations. Paul holds a BSc in Physics and Mathematics and an MSc in Engineering Project Management.

Dana Petroleum
We use our technical expertise to explore for it, develop it and produce it in Europe, Africa and th
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13:00 Raffle Prize draw, followed by Lunch and refreshments

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