Huge amounts of gas have been discovered offshore East Africa, mainly in Mocambique, then Tanzania and this month in Kenya.
We will wait to see if and when this gas can be moved economically to market, given the plentiful amounts of gas being found globally and the potential for shale gas to be exported as LNG from the USA.
Imminent high value is more likely to result from the discovery of commercial volumes of oil offshore – but where?
Oil has been discovered onshore in the Albertine Graben of Uganda (and very recently in Kenya).
Large amounts of gas have been discovered offshore – in both Mocambique and Tanzania – but no oil as yet.
The gas volumes discovered in both Mocambique and Tanzania are significant and as a distant observer one’s immediate response is to think that they are both candidates for LNG schemes. However, this perspective ignores the focus both host governments will have on domestic issues such as creating a local market and providing employment in the relatively short term.
A combination of successes – for example shale gas onshore in the USA, conventional gas in the Eastern Mediterranean and on the NW Shelf of Australia – have led to there being a large number of global LNG opportunities, for gas to move to either Europe or SE Asia, which may mean that somewhat more costly East African LNG will have to wait its turn in the queue. Whilst the Majors may be content to ‘bank’ gas for the longer term, ready for the day the price rises and it is needed, as pointed out above this may not at all be in line with the hopes and expectations of the governments of Tanzania and Mocambique.
The attraction of offshore oil would be that the global price is probably going to remain high and that a discovery of a few hundred million barrels can be developed fairly rapidly with an FPSO and shuttle tankerage (indeed many tankers pass this way as they go around the Cape of Good Hope!).
So where might there be oil offshore?
Let’s see if this Forum can figure that out!
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David Bamford is 63. He is a non-executive director at Tullow Oil plc and has various roles with Parkmead Group plc, PARAS Ltd and New Eyes Exploration Ltd, and runs his own consultancy. He writes regular articles for OilVoice and ROGTEC and is a co-founder of Finding Petroleum.
He retired from BP in 2003, after a 23 year career spent initially in research & technology, then the geophysics function, business unit leadership, and finally BP's global exploration programme.
Finding Petroleum
Finding Petroleum was established to help the oil and gas industry network, and stay up to date on the latest technological developments. It does this via hosting regular events, distributing their colour magazine - Digital Energy Journal, and with an online social network of nearly 700 members.
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Anthony Franks OBE
Within Mars Omega Partnership, Anthony is responsible for managing and controlling the extensive information networks, as well as directing and working with the analysis team to create reports for clients, and also works with Hamish MacDonald in the Liaison and Mediation service.
Anthony is an Arabic interpreter (and also speaks French and German, with conversational Greek and Italian) with long experience of living and working in the Mediterranean, Middle East and North Africa, especially in the fields of analysing operational, business and political risks.
He has broad commercial experience in the risk management, security and intelligence fields following 26 years service in British military intelligence.
Mars Omega Partnership Ltd
Mars Omega Partnership is a small but rapidly expanding consulting firm with client-facing directors drawn predominantly from military and intelligence backgrounds.
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Currently the Exploration Director for Aminex PLC, Mike graduated from University College of Swansea, Wales, with a Geology degree and joined SSL - Seismograph Services (England) Limited - and was posted to Libya processing onshore seismic data prior to returning to the UK and working as a seismic interpreter on UKCS speculative seismic data.
In 1985 Mike joined BP as a geophysicist, initially in the Far East Regional Appraisal Group, prior to postings to San Francisco to work on the onshore San Joaquin Basin of California, and Cairo, Egypt, to work on the Gulf of Suez and the Western Desert, before returning to London at the end of 1989 to work on deepwater West Africa.
In 1991, Mike joined LASMO initially working on West Africa, but also sub-Saharan Africa including the Seychelles. Mike then joined the Russia group, focussed on new opportunities mainly in West Siberia, leaving in 1993 and working as an independent consultant on West Siberia and West Africa, until joining Phibro to work on the White Knights Joint Venture in West Siberia until 1998, at which point Mike joined Aminex initially in the Tatarstan and Komi semi-autonomous Republics of Russia. In late 2001, Mike persuaded Aminex management that East Africa offered low cost opportunities with little competition, yet potentially large rewards, resulting with Aminex entering Tanzania in 2002.
Aminex
Aminex is an oil and gas exploration, development and production company with a 19 year track-record of fulfilling projects in many areas of the world. Its shares are traded on the Full List of the London Stock Exchange.
The company's principal focus areas are the East African coastal margin of Tanzania and the US onshore Gulf Coast of Texas and Louisiana.
Aminex has a unique acreage position in Tanzania with 4 major wells drilled including 2 discoveries.
One Tanzanian gas discovery is ready to develop and there is an active ongoing exploration programme. (Resources have recently been independently evaluated)
A current drilling programme in Louisiana is based on 3D seismic with 2 wells successfully drilled in 2010.
Aminex's shares are traded on the Full Lists of both the London and Irish Stock Exchanges (symbol AEX).
Aminex also participates in exploration projects onshore in Egypt
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Peter Evans has spent eight years working for Tullow Oil plc on UK Southern North Sea, Uganda and other African assets in a number of geological, evaluation and management roles and currently heads geological operations across Tullow’s assets.
Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration companies in Europe. The Group has operations in Africa, Europe, South Asia and South America. Tullow is headquartered in London and employs nearly 2000 people world-wide. Current production is ~90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The company drills tens of exploration, appraisal and development wells annually, included multi-well campaigns in Ghana, Uganda and Kenya, with high exploration success rates.
Tullow Oil
Tullow Oil plc is one of the largest independent oil and gas exploration companies in Europe. The Group has operations in Africa, Europe, South Asia and South America. Tullow is headquartered in London and employs nearly 2000 people world-wide. Current production is ~90,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd). The company drills tens of exploration, appraisal and development wells annually, included multi-well campaigns in Ghana, Uganda and Kenya, with high exploration success rates.
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Stephen is a Commercial Manager at Sasol Petroleum International responsible for Southern Africa. In a previous life he was an exploration geologist for Murphy, Hamilton Brothers and BHP and retains a keen interest in the petroleum geology side of the business.
Sasol Petroleum International
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